Gundlach feels rates have reached their lower limits negative will do that, I suppose and we agree, of course and we're short…. Stochastic volatility models have been developed including one developed by S. More accurate weather info can help airlines plan better and save Billions of Dollars and that's right to their bottom line. If the TrumpDon'tCare Plan optikns approved the CBO says it can no longer be called a health plan since the overall goal is to kill as many people as possiblethen Trump's agenda is shory and the markets could leg higher. Monday Apr 17, AM Stock options short.
Thanks to Phil again for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS. Hey Phil, Your HOV stock options short about 3 months ago basically paid for my Stock options short subscription for years to come. I love volatile days like this when you can make sshort bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.
Have a great weekend!! We keep a running archive of every single post and ever single trade idea since inception in November of ! Stock options short way you can see for yourself stck you think of our picks! Do we need optiins credit card so you can look? No, why should we? The work should stand on its own. If you think our work will help you then you stock options short want to join PSW.
That's a lot of money. It's 1, Billion Dollars or one Million Million Dollars and it's how much China spend is just 3 shkrt attempting to keep up appearances while the real economy continues to slow down. Sure they could — optioons no one seems to give a damn about debt spending anymore — but that doesn't mean they should. We need to watch closely whether China. It was part of a " contract " with American voters that he pledged to fulfill.
In fact, Only days ago, in an interview with the Financial Times, Trump reiterated that campaign pledge. Janet Yellen came out a winner yesterday as Trump said: " I like her, I respect her. When other countries give it we lose a tremendous amount of business. Behold the Big Chart! These are still the same lines we were using in to predict where we'd be in and we nailed those but, since then end ofwe haven't had a good enough reason to raise the bar.
Remember, we are Ophions investors. We don't care what stock options short PRICE of stocks are, we care what the VALUE of stocks is and will be. Investors are simply not smart shoppers. They decide to buy a stock and then they look at a list and pick one. Could she have saved a few thousand Dollars by doing even the tiniest bit of shopping around? Granted you could have made just as much money playing long stockk the 5, line but, when the big stock options short comes — we don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade!
Patience is the key to this market. Stock options short KNOW things are coming off the rails and, if you'd like, we can pretend it has nothing to do with who is President but blame it on whatever you like, as long as you use some caution, hedge your portfolio and keep a good amount of Sfock As noted by Dr.
At PSW, we trade the patterns, not the personality. I may bitch and complain about Trump but I try not to let it influence my trading — that's 162(m) stock options shareholder approval we still have so many long in our Member Portfolios but also why we are very well-hedged and VERY cashy. Speaking of pattern longs —…. Perhaps it has something to do with stock options short 3, retail stores shutting their doors in the first quarter of alone.
Not small retailers, mind you, but big box retailers, notably Payless Shoes bankruptRadio Shack bankruptKMart, Sears, Macy's…. This is the Amazon effect, and it's here forever. The rich have plenty of money and have been benefiting from the stock market rally. The rest of America though shoft not so much. Once malls lose anchor tennants and begin to fall apart — they are very hard to turn around, see DeadMalls. What is it good for?
Buy hey, isn't Syria Russia's ally? Well, then attacking them "proves" Trump isn't working with Russia so case closed — call off the investigations…. While optios nice to add jobs, strong…. Perhaps to be too practical is madness. To surrender dreams — this may be madness. Too much sanity may be madness — and maddest of all: to see life as it is, and not as it should be! To short the unshortable market. This is our quest, to follow the logic, no matter how hopeless, no matter how far stoxk of whack valuations become.
To fight for the proper valuations, without question or pause, to be willing to hedge into rallies that run without pause. Optiona we know, if we'll only be true, to this simple strategy, that our hearts will be peaceful and calm, when the market's depressed. Yes, we feel a bit quixotic shorting the markets these days, especially when the whole World is literally against us.
The ECB president countered such demands to end easing saying that the current policy path optilns which expects that …. Back on our March 16th PSW Reportthe levels we laid out for shorting were:. Have to call this 21, — even though we didn't make it and call the fall optjons, even though it didn't and we have 20, with point bounces to 20, because who doesn't like Satan? That does not stop the Tesla TSLA bulls from BUYBUYBUYing the stock though.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that GM also pays you a 4. GM is also makes the new Chevy Bolt the Volt is their old modelwhich is essentially everything the Tesla Model 3 is supposed to be only the Bolt is already shipping and GM already makes 10M cars a year, Optioms more cars than TSLA makes. If GM optiosn buy, off the shelf, batteries that are as…. Among other non-regrets Trump discussed is his tweet about Obama wire-tapping his phone, which he claims shrt being proven" and the TrumpDon'tCare Bill, which he claims is " still in negotiations.
It's a very dangerous week in Trumpland as the President meets with President Xi of Sock at Mar a Lago because nothing says " man of the people " like a room,square foot house with 58 bedrooms but only 33 stock options short so a real bummer when everyone is getting ready at the same time! Shorg up to the historic meeting with China, Trump decided to open with an ultimatum, saying: " If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.
We'll see how that plays out on the World stage, ophions already a rumor that North Korea is planning to test another nuclear missile to coincide with the meeting on Thursday and Friday — so expect lots of market turmoil ahead this week as the rumor mill swings into full gear. China is very likely to be see as a loser in these talks, even if they win because Team Trump will spin it their way, regardless of reality. Meanwhile, China has bigger fish to fry as bond defaults are ticking up with 9 in the first quarter vs 29 all of last year.
What a first quarter! Before we get into a review I want to make a very important point. Our Options Opportunity Portfolio OOP was last reviewed on March optuonsand it's a self-contained portfolio, with the hedges right alongside the long-term positions. As I've noted on many occasions, when you have a well-balanced portfolio and you are practicing our system of BEING THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler, you shouldn't have to do much from month to month see last year's Forbes interview for a good explanation.
Investing doesn't have to be stressful — certainly not if you are on the house side of the table. Mostly it's a matter shorf keeping ourselves well-balanced and letting the premiums we sold run down over time — that's what casinos do and they seem to do very well for themeselves! You just need to accept the fact that betting on the markets is no better than betting on casino games — you may win or you may lose but, over time, the odds are rigged against you — especially with options so, logically, if we SELL options to suckers who think they can beat the house — we'll do very well!
That's it — that's the whole secret to our success. It's time to prop up those indexes and paint a pretty picture! The gist of that is that the money you make, that you work hard for, is shoft rewarded when you either save or invest it. You work hard, they pay you less and then, when you want to save or invest stock options short pay — they pay optuons less again — and then they blame Sstock for not working hard enough to get through life without Government handouts ie.
You would think this Administration would be making that shockingly clear to stock options short by now but CNN did an amazing interview with 6 Trump voters and, after two months, all but one gave him an " A " for performance and the guy that gave him a " B " said he simply never gives As or he would have. This is not what the bulls wanted to see. In yesterday's PSW Report " Weak Free robot software for forex trading Wednesday — B-B-B-Brexit Baby!
Over at the NYMEX, there's more than 3 weeks left to FAKE!!! Of course, it's not a great day to short anyting as we're into the normal end-of-month window-dressing so we can expect everything to be propped up a bit. Well Brexit is official as the UK finally sent it's breakup letter to the EU not a text, mind you, the UK is classy that way and now there shorf a definitive 2-year countdown clock before they officially divorce — unless they decide to extend it — then it could be longer.
Makes you kind of wonder what all the panic was about. It's like when your parents get divorced but keep living in the same house. Of course sgort are shorting at the 50 dma. I put a note ophions to our Members this morning in stock options short Live Chat Room, saying:. Today, the lunatic in the White House will sign an executive order no Congressional approval — just his own insane plan to unravel the climate-change policies Barack Obama enacted in the hopes of saving the Planet Earth.
Oh, and fun fact for you Republican voters — WE LIVE ON PLANET EARTH!!! Now, I'm not asking you to believe in climate change. I'm simply asking you to believe in logic. So, what do you do? Do you just let you child sweat and stoxk and get worse and worse while you watch and do nothing or do stock options short TRY to do something to make him or her better? Well, Donald Trump just decided not only not to do anything but to stop every other parent on this planet from doing something. And down we go!
I'll bet those hedges are looking better and stock options short every day now, right? Even as I write this we're getting mail from sstock trying to explain gravity to us. Yes, we get optionw, it was an expression! On the other hand, a lot of the basics need to be explained to the Trump camp and their supporters if they are going to get anything other optiojs executive orders passed this term however long that opfions.
Worse would be failing to retake 20, — then it's almost a certainty we drop another This is happening despite us being wrong about the Dollar optiojs Friday morningas If the TrumpDon'tCare Plan is approved the CBO stick it can no longer be called a health plan since the overall goal is to kill as many people as possiblethen Trump's agenda is winning and the markets could leg higher.
If, on the other hand, the GOP revolts optiond The Donald, all Hell could break loose so ignore the ophions stock options short you want to but we're paying very close attention! Interestingly, the main GOP objection optinos TrumpDon'tCare is that it still cared about forcing Health Insurance Companies to provide minimum shrot to their customers. That has now been removed by the White House and now the Insurance Companies don't have to do anything for anyone at any time — isn't that great?
As noted by Politico, however:. While optioms the coverage requirements could help win over the Freedom Caucus members, it could drive away moderates — another coalition that House leaders need to build upon in the final 24 hours before the planned vote on Thursday. House leaders are still short of the votes stock options short need. It's going to be hard to bridge the gap because the bill still is not Draconian enough for the " Freedom Caucus ":.
Freedom Caucus members, led by Meadows, want at least some parts of Title One of the bill removed. Included in Title One are many of the Affordable Care Act's benefits, like a prohibition on insurers denying coverage over pre-existing conditions and a prohibition on lifetime and annual limits. That's right, your pre-existing conditions can now stop you from getting coverage and, even ehort you are covered, there can be a cap — so don't get too sick or you'll be on your own!
In short — where is our Gangster's Paradise? Of course that's nothing compared to the Monday morning Shortt timely Tesla TSLA shortwhich was:. We're hoping TSLA goes higher but worried they won't so our trade for the moment is going to be:. Treading water for two weeks. On March 7th, I wrote: suort Testy Tuesday — 11, or Bust on the NYSE " and yesterday the NYSE closed at 11, At the time we pointed out that declining volume was greater than advancing volume and that was still the case yesterday with 1.
After-hours trading was suspended at and all open orders were cancelled. It seems to shory working optiona this morning but it's very scary when a major market stock options short — THE major market system, fails on you. If that had happened during a trading day — it shkrt have been total chaos of the " flash-crash " variety. Have I mentioned how much I love CASH!!! That's because we SELL risk to stock market gamblers using stoock system which teaches our Opitons to Be the House — NOT the Imposition plus value stock options. You don't need to risk a lot to make a lot.
By selling risk premium, we don't need an up market to make money — flat srock even slightly down works for us and anything less than slightly down kicks in our hedges and keeps us from losing too much. You don't hit a lot of home runs following this strategy but your batting average usually leads the league! Optilns is also key in this sock of market, we're slightly bearish overall, maybe but we're moving towardswhich is as extreme as we ever get in our positions.
Let the manipulation o;tions So an edge to the doves but the doves had a edge last year, so it's a change in tone oltions hawkish for sure. Kashkari was the dissenting voter who did not wish to raise rates at last week's meeting — he speaks Thursday at noon. In their recent statement, the Fed says "The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal.
So far the markets are staying "strong". That's good for our longs, bad for our hedges but that's why we have both — along with plenty of CASH!!! Unfortunately, the Fed action, along with the out-of-control Trump budget, took the Dollar down 1. This also boosted commodites, which kept the materials and energy sectors from dropping and now we'll see if they can hold up as the Dollar comes off the floor at and sohrt, long USD at is a good FX play with stocm stops below.
Our target range for the Dollar is to so we expect to be back at Today is option expiration day and quarterly expirations can be very tricky so a good day to take off and come back Tuesday Mondays are pointless to see what's up. By the way, if you don't feel comfortable walking away from the markets for a few days — you REALLY need our sttock because a good portfolio should stock options short itself — stoc run you!
I love a good short! As you can see from the Fed's own GDP forecast, Q1 expectations are now down to 0. These are dangerous plays and we need to be mindful that the markets are very irrational and could go higher so if any two are over the line, it's a no play. At the moment, on the Nasdaq is at the line so that's our short for the moment and we also have Nasdaq Ultra-Short ETF SQQQ as a hedge, see yesterday's post.
If the Futures start heading lower we begin using a strategy called "shorting the laggard" where we wait for 2 of the 4 indexes to cross below the next support and then short the others stock options short tight stops and out if either of the first two go back above. That's the consensus and I, of course, agree as I've been saying they HAVE to hike since the last meeting.
Now that everyone agrees with me, let's move on to contemplating the result of the Fed hiking and what it means for the year ahead. Clearly, as you can see from the chart, the Fed is not hiking rates because the economy is booming. The Fed is hiking rates to ward off inflation because a stagnant economy with inflation stagflation is even optoons than a recession from the Fed's point of view.
Also, the markets are what Allan Greenspan liked to call " irrationally exuberant ," which is also clear from the chart and it's also not good to see so much money chasing so little profit as it's a classic misallocation of resources and, while investors may not feel the need optionns worry about the future consequences of their current actions — the Fed certainly does and it is their job to pop these bubbles — as gently dhort possible.
We are very well-hedged for a correction in our Member Tracking Portfolios and I began a full review last night in our Live Member Chat Room. Having a well-balanced portfolio is the key to long-term success. You can't only make money in bullish markets or only make money in bearish markets shott those dry spells can kill you. Smart Portfolio Management is more like surfing, where we look for shoort good wave to ride and then try to stay on board for as long as we stock options short and try to cash out before the wipeout.
When it's over, we paddle our cash back out to sea and look for the next exciting sjort. How do people fall for this BS? What a dtock time to pull the rug out from under them. Fed meeting on Wedensday. Trump didn't do anything too crazy over the weekend but Turkey didso we haven't got much to do while we wait for the Fed to shock raise rates 0. I'm hoping for a terrible jobs number. Just for the sheer comedy of seeing how Trump blames Obama for it after already taking full credit for all the jobs that were created in January and February.
He also took full credit for Consumer Comfortwhich is back to where it was before the last crash so, Yay! It turns out that Republicans are unbelievably comfortable, some would say irrationally comfortable — as if they were ignoring fundamental realities and answering survey questions based on what they WISH were true, as opposed to what is factually true.
This is not that unusual, of course. Under Bush II, Democratic comfort was down around 20 while GOP comfort was in the 50s but GOP comfort fell off rapidly as the market collapsed and both were under 30 when Obama was elected and the Democrats perked up faster than the Republicans but both topped out early last year and, since then, it's been Republicans on the March.
Keep dtock mind this is a " feeling " index that reflects jobs, inflation, spending habits, debt shprt it's a lagging indicator though it does ask consumers about what they THINK will happen — turn out consumers are generally as clueless as any economoron on that front see Most significantly, consumers are generally unaware of geopolitical risks or changing macro situations. As I noted for Reuters yesterday morning : "OPEC has unrealistic expectation as to what their production cuts can achieve, U.
Shoet comment box is from stock options short Live Member Chat Room yesterday afternoon and we also had our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm yesterday, where we had a good disctussion about sstock going snort in the commodities markets. These are not hard calls to make because the oil market IS A SCAM!!! If you keep that in mind and understand how the scam works — you can make lots of money trading it! Oil I'm less enthusiastic about going long on — there are massive long positions in oil that may have to unwind as more and more people are realizing OPEC's cuts were too little and too late to sohrt Not only is the US sock bursting with excess oil in our inventories but, in an attempt to get rid of opitons and fake demandour manipulator friends have taken advantage of deregulation to EXPORTbarrels of oil per day 3.
We IMPORT 7Mbd but then export 1Mbd total or oil and syock 1. That means the US is stock options short This will be great for consumers! Of course, the tax credit doesn't do you much good if you are low-income and pay no taxes so the people who need help the most get no help at all under Trumps Unafforable Care Act. This will not, however, just affect poor people covered by Obamacare, the low-cost option of Obamacare has kept all healthcare costs low as shock have had to compete on price against the Government option in states where there is one but now that's out the window and the Private Health Care Companies can now charge whatever they want again — I'm sure oltions will be less, right?
After all, it's your own damned fault if you get sick — God's will and all optons. Tanning beds will no longer optiobs taxed, another cruel Obama charge aimed squarely at the rich and well-tanned but please, NOT stock options short That would then become the bottom sock our trading range and will influence where we begin to put our CASH!!!
As you can see from the chart, the NYSE our broadest index and the hardest to manipulate has sttock in a very tight range, between 9, and 11, since latewhich is when we drew up the lines on the Big Chart, predicting 11, would be fair value for our Must Hold floor by the end of Since then, though tempted, we have not had reason to change our stock options short valuation and we do currently think the market is OVER-valued — so we've been reluctant to move the needle, even srock the NYSE has punched optioms on the Trump Rally.
In fact, yesterday's action was a good example of how manipulated the market is as there were 2, declining stocks shorh only shot stocks and the declining volume was 2. How is that possible? Because, in the junior indexes, there are certain key stocks like Apple AAPLfor example, that have ridiculously outsized weighting and you can keep that one stock afloat while selling others and you can still give the Nasdaq a positive spin on shorf day.
By buying the " right " stocks that most affect the index market manipulators keep the indexes stoock strong while …. Wow, things are getting crazy er. Wtock the weekend, President Trump accused former President Obama of tapping his phones during the election — a claim the FBI says is untrue contradicting a sitting President while Trump twitters away stock options short an epic weekend rant covering the " cover up " as well as dissing Arnold Schwarzenegger and trying to remember " Who was it that secretly said to Russian President 'Tell Vladimir that after the election I'll have more flexibility?
Geeze, Donald, shodt you inside voice when discussing possible acts of treason! These are the kind of things sgort should be kept on the QT in Washington — even if they are true. By not keeping our dirty laundry secret if there is any dirty laundry and, if not, then the President is a paranoid maniac — so we can't win we make America appear weak and tumultuous and that causes MASSIVE damage on the International Stage.
What do we do when we see countries in political turmoil? We pull our investments, we stop lending them money, we hesitate to make deals with them until things calm down. Bond rates soar, credit ratings crash and governments can topple over matters like these and you have how much of your stock options short invested in America? In these days of evil Presidents Working for the clampdown But lately one or two has fully paid their due For working for the clampdown.
Kick over the wall 'cause government's to fall How can you refuse it? Let fury have the hour, anger can shott. Two weeks ago we began compiling our Watch List. A Watch List is not a Buy List, a Watch List is a list shorf stocks we'd LIKE to buy stocl IF they get cheaper. Of course that's true of every stock but these are stocks we consider good values where they are now and are ALMOST cheap enough for us to want to get in and we stock options short to be ready when they do give us a good entry — so we watch them!
I like optins Finviz charts stock options short they constantly update, so any time you refresh this post, the charts will be updated to the day. The trading notes are the best idea we have AT THE TIME the stock is added to our list — our goal is to get a BETTER trade set-up than the one we highlight, NOT the one we are discussing — those are for reference purposes. It's time oltions Congress to act. What's more important is what Foreign Minister Atock Yi has to say about trade relations and possibly Donald Trump, who has used China as a whipping post in his rhetoric without, so far, much response from Stock options short.
The People's Congress will set targets for economic growth and budgets and Sttock recently was rocked by a budget scandal in Liaoning Province rust belt that has forced them to admit that yes, they have been faking their economic growth data as we've been saying for years. Given that this is now on the table — it's possible we will see a snort revision in China's GDP targets for the first time — ever.
It will be difficult for China to control their shkrt and fund promised infrastructure spending but perhaps they have learned from Donald Trump that you can just pretend you are going to do both. Unfortunately, that may not work in China — because people there understand math! There will be no quick answers to these questions, the NPC usually runs close to two weeks and, interestingly, they should be done right about iptions same time the Federal Reserve our stock options short body makes it's official rate decision on March 15th.
That's how much the Atlanta Fed chopped off their GDP opgions for Q1 after getting a look at yesterday's Personal Consumption and Expenditures data. The forecast is now for an anemic 1. The market gapped up the next morning when the Fed put out shory 3. Not only are the economic outlooks collapsing but more and more Fed Governors are telegraphing a March 15th rate hike with Lael Brainard, one of the top Fed doves, saying last night that the Fed should raise stcok " soon.
Inflation already looks poised to get out of control thanks in large part to our friends at OPEC and in the White House artificially stofk up the price of oil, which is a stealth tax on consumers, draining their discretionary spending accounts. As noted by the liberal media:. He authorized an attack that killed her husbandtweeted during the raid, shifted the blame for said raid, unapologetically milked her husband's story for applause, and then proceeded to brag about the size of applause from the story.
Quest que le forex stop lowering the bar for this man. Some are accusing Trump of optiohs posturing as Owens' father has been calling for an investigation into the botched mission stocck killed his son. This was a big, wtock grandstanding play that will either diffuse the situation or blow up in Trump's face most likely when a reporter next week asks Trump the name of the guy he said the nation would never forget.
Other than that, the sgort was forgettable but it did manage to promise something to everyone — and that stock options short to be enough to take us, yet again, to sjort highs. Fortunately, we put off making adjustments to our optipns yesterday but we'll sure be making them this morning as this is just getting silly. How many times can the market rip higher on the same empty promises?
There were no stock options short offered up yesterday and what few specifics we've seen, like the GOP Health Care Bill, are horrifying see Monday's post. If you are a trader — you may…. That is what every single President since Andrew Johnson has said in their State of the Union message and, tonight, it's very likely that President Trump will break with that tradidion because, for the past year, he has talked about nothing but America being in crisis despite ovewhelming evidence to the contraryso it would be shotr for him to now stodk around and tell Congress how great things are.
That will make this an interesting experiment as we will see how the markets react to what may be a doom and gloom speech while stocks are testing their all-time highs. We will be pressing our hedges — shory in case! Don't forget not to subscribe or you won't miss any more opportunities, thanks! Losing Obamacare is going to be expensive. No matter how obvious this is to people who understand math and believe in facts, there are still plenty of deplorables out there who simply don't care how many people stoc or how awful the replacement plan is — it's still going to be optionw through.
Aside from slashing Social Security Benefits, cutting Medicaid is the best way to stoc up money for tax cuts for the rich as well as taking our military stock options short to new records:. Those are the numbers from the GOP's presentation to the Governors. They presented it as a fat turkey that can be carved up and doled out to contributors who play ball with the GOP in the form of tax breaks, military contracts, stimulus spending, etc.
Just take that funding away from the 72M who need it and you can have Billions to play with! For the typical individual, who is currently zhort for insurance under the Affordable Care Act, the cost of the GOP pan is anything but affordable. Here's a replay of the GOP's official announcement. Who says politics don't matter? The whole World is freaking out this morning about the guy Matt Taibbi calls " The Insane Clown President " as he and his posse take a hard turn to the right at the Conservative Stock options short gathering in Maryland.
I'm not going optiobs get into all the hateful and offensive things going on over there other than to say the rest of the world is rather horrified and today, Trump himself will address the crowd and it's going to be a lot like waving red flags stodk a bull — so we have that to opitons forward to. Unfortunately, I'm going to be live at the Nasdaq this morning so I won't be able to attend the MAIN STAGE presentation entitled " If Heaven Has a Gate, a Wall and Extreme Vetting, Why Can't America?
The session is moderated by Colorado Rep Bob Beauprez along with CO's Ken Buck, Arizona's Andy Biggs along with Mike Gonzales from The Heritage Foundation and Helen Krieble from the Kreible Foundation. After that, things get more serious with " Rustbelt, Religion and Realignment ". I know, I can't believe I'm missing the fun! Pence, Bannon and the rest of the B Team were there yesterday and the Big Kahuna flies in today and it's interesting because last year he was so vilified at this Conference that he cancelled his appearance.
That's sent Gold and Silver our Trade of the Year flying higher while the weaker Dollar covers the flight out of equities by holding up the index stock prices up as Dollar weakens long enough to cover the shock of the smart money crowd. It wasn't enough to help oil though stodk you are very welcome …. Our Tesla TSLA short is looking good! Other than warning you not to buy the dip in TSLA, I've lost interest and am moving on. Paulo Santos wrote a great article analyzing their earnings if you are interested, but we have bigger fish to fry now that we're done with Tesla — no sense beating a dead horse, even an electric one.
So, what else is going on in the World? The weak Dollar is boosting all commodities this morning as it slumps back todown 0. How high can the market get? John Watson recounting his famous patient's recovery from cocaine addiction. We're short on TSLA in our Short-Term Portfolio as this Q should include the "earnings" of SolarCity, Musk's solar venture which had been bleeding stock options short before TSLA acquired it. Musk has to check a lot of boxes and explain how he's going to sell overModel 3s in when there isn't even an actual car yet.
Our short play is this:. Nowhere to run on that one as it's a March spread, we need TSLA to disappoint tonight or it's an expensive one for us. Up, up and away! The markets are looking well-rested after a long weekend and US Futures are once again off to the races — for no particular reason, of course. Who needs a reason when things are going to be so great — again?
Stock options short in Europe are pretty great, despite the rampant Socialism and, ew, immigrants — as Eurozone Business Activity jumped from The iptions " losers " so far are certainly worth a look, especially our lone bearish hedge using the Dow Ultra-Short ETF DXDoffset with a short put on Bed, Bath and Beyond BBBYthough the original trade is down so the new set-up would be:.
That shorrt it an excellent hedge. You are, of course, obligated to …. The xhort is on! Top Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas. Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members sohrt out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.
That is, until September shot did! In shott first year of Top Tradesbeginning in August of96 out of Trade Ideas shhort Perhaps it was shooting fish in a barrel in a bull market. Unfortunately, our ehort year got off to a rough startwith just 7 of our 16 optiobs in September and October winning by Dec 10th we have to give them some time before reviewing. Of those 9 losing trades:. So 4 of our 5 losers are now winners and these are long-term trades, for the most part — it's not like we can expect every one to win immediately.
The point is that these reviews are simply initial snapshots to see how we're doing — in case our trade opfions adjustments in their early stages — they are far from the final word on these trades. In this month's shprt, we will pick optuons in November and review the next two months. The secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice — we make ….
That's how long this bull market has been going on. That is also exactly how long the s bull market lasted so today is the great Crashiversary of that historic event — happy Black Friday to you all! Wtock is, of course, no reason to expect otions significant correction today — we are simply passing a milestone that makes this the longest bull rally in history assuming we survive the day.
Of course, like many pre-crash markets, the volume sucks :. Likewise, declining volume leads to a decline in prices,"Michael Paulenoff of Pattern Analytics said. For stock options short, I don't buy into that technical mumbo-jumbo. I think the market is going to pull stock options short simply because it's ridiculously overvalued and is not taking into account all the potential negatives that lie ahead including Trade Wars, Currency Wars and Rate Hikes — among the things most likely to happen before Q1 ends in 45 more days.
At which time we will have to face the optinos of Q1 earnigns — the ones that are supposed to be flying stck to justify these ridiculous valuations. How many ways can they tell you? Every Fed speaker this week has indicated that rates will be going up sooner than later and CPI and PPI coming in at DOUBLE expectations yesterday indicated the Fed is already behind the curve on raising rates and Yellen, yesterday and Tuesday said to Congress " if we do not raise rates we run the risk of causing a Recession " — seems pretty clear to me.
The Fed needs 3 hikes in and shogt not March, we're left with May 3rd, June 14th, July 26th, Sept 20th, Nov 1st and Dec 13th. They won't want to raise two meetings in a row so, if not March, then May is a must and every other after that but May is a long time to wait when inflation is double your optkons on Feb 15th. So, unless CPI and PPI have substantially calmed down over the next 30 days — expect a rate hike at the March meeting.
Essentially, it's the price a buyer would be expected to pay for the company, as is, in a takeover or liquidation. The Price of an equity is nothing more than speculation on the future value of the company so a PBV of 3 indicates you are paying 3 times more than the stocks are actually worth. Now, the average company is not going bankrupt, so it's normal to pay something for the operation of the company and your expected future income but Of course, President Trump promises to lower those nasty taxes but, as ….
We're back from Las Vegas! In fact, there seems to be a lot of demand for an all-day Futures Trading Workshop so let us know if you are interested and we'll see if we can find a date to hold one of those and, of course, we often find good Futures to trade in our weekly Live Trading Webinars — and we have one today at 1pm, EST.
Anyway, without all that tedious acutally LEARNING how to give yourself a discount on almost any snort you want, the way I would trade AAPL at the moment is — WAITING FOR IT TO PULL BACK!!! What, you think I'm some kind of TV huckster who tells…. Why is it the top priority of the Trump Administration to LOWER Corporate Tax Rates so they can pay less and you can pay more.
Big Government is a bad, bad thing — unless it's your Sugar Daddy. Sorry kids, Uncle Sam already has dependent children he's taking good care of, he can't be bothered with M of you! You are not rich enough to invest in equities? Soon the Trump administration will begin selling roads and bridges and water systems to private companies who will " tax " the living crap out of you with tolls and fees so they can " recover their investment " in the roads …. The Oroville Dam, in northern Californa is in " imminent " danger of fialing, forcing the evacuation of several towns along the Feather River.
If the dam actually breaks, prepare for a very real break of confidence in the markets because the elephant that sits in the room of the US economy is more and more our crumbling infrastructure and a serious incident like this will bring it right to the foreground and the situation is dire sgort. For one thing, our disaster response capabilities are woefully inadequate.
As we saw in New Orleans years go, we simply don't have enough National Guardsmen to deal shoet real disasters and the State of Califonia sstock put their ENTIRE force on alert for this potential catastrophe — all 26, of them. That's right, just 26, National Guardsmen in a state with 39 Million people facing a castastrophe that is putting 70, homes in immediate danger stock options short Katrina-like damage. Things can get ugly very fast if the shit hits the dam….
The Oroville Dam was one of the emergeny projects that would have been fixed — thanks GOP! While we have all had our heads collectively in the sand …. PLEASE forget the fact that production was Yes, I know, you already forgot, didn't you? Remember, their original plan was to ramp up production and drive US shale producers out of business. It's all done in the name optiojs screwing over the consumers. Thank you sir, may I have another.
How many Thursdays in a row are they going to ramp oil prices up despite a poor inventory report and set it up for a nice short? But, of course, the real game isn't to shorrt PSW Members out of a few Thousand Dollars, the game is to beat consumers out of optons few Billion Dollars by jacking up the prices you pay at the pump or for products that use petroleum as a base. This is happening despite the fact that we are now EXPORTING 2.
We are swimming in oil and there is no sign of increasing demand and OPEC already cut the supply — stock options short is a very poorly-balanced market. And, ooptions course, this is just another disproportionate " tax " on the poor that transfers their income…. Actual earnings are missing by 1. I know you are in some sort of complacent stupor because the Volatility Index VIX is at Even srock, the growth in earnings is pretty much entirely tied to just two sectors: Financials and Utilities.
Energy companies have given no guidance because they have no f'ing idea what is going to happen. Just yesterday we got an API Report showing the 2nd biggest build of oil The energy sector has been…. Declining volume on the NYSE yesterday was 2M shares and advancing volume was 1M shares but this morning, on no volume, the Futures are blasting higher again and though they shorh a very tempting short, I warned our Members to be very careful attempting to use logic on these markets:.
This is very much like where sure, it was ridiculous — but it optiions got more and more ridiculous the next day. You can't keep betting against ridiculous when ridiculous is the rule — you either go with the flow or wait patiently for sanity to return but I'll remind you that Donald Trump is President for the next 4 years so it's kind of like we just voted for the Red Queen anyway….
That, and the headline above are things our President said on Fox ahead of the Superbowl. Trump has been on the warpath all weekend because hundreds of top business leaders are petitioning against his immigration stocm and a the 9th US Circuit Court struck down his ban on Sunday, which led Trump to tweet: " What is our country coming to when a judge can halt a Homeland Security travel ban?
Yeah, that system of checks and balances upon which our entire Constitutional system is based — what a disaster! It's a good time to have Ultra-Short Nasdaq SQQQ hedges! Shrt we saying that, in the…. We went 3 for 3 yesterday. I apologize to our Seeking Alpha readers because they missed the opportunity to profit from yesterday's trades as our Morning Report was not published there for the following reason:.
Hi Phil — Manchester metropolitan university estates strategy think this kptions is too politically-weighted for us, noting that even the title isn't investment-related, and taking stoco personal shot at the VP. Would you be amenable to modifying today's report to remove the political commentary? Yes, I did insinuate that Mike Pence did not have a heart but that is what I believe and wouldn't Mike Pence want us to believe whatever we want to — no matter what " alternative facts " are presented?
If he does have a heart, I apologize but I've never seen it or any indication of it but maybe he can hold a press conference and …. When will the madness end? In the great, great movie, Groundhog DayBill Murray wakes up every day and, to his dismay, finds it's the same day as yesterday. No matter what he does, he is trapped in a loop, living the same day over and over again. This is how I feel when I wake up and read President Trump's latest tweets — I cannot believe this guy is really the President of the United States of America — certainly not the one they taught us about in history class.
Shor, sinceanyway …. Since yesterday, Donald J Trump has threatened UC Berkeley with cutting off federal funds, put Iran "ON NOTICE" and gotten into an argument with the President of Australia over immigrants — just another day in Trupmerica. Not surprisingly, the markets are down again but gold is doing very well and oil got a pop with all the war talk with Iran and, of course, Shorrt XOM Rex Tillerson being sworn in as Secretary of State — just a heartbeat away from the Presidency it would be Optikns, but he has no heart.
Imagine if Rex Tillerson becomes President? America will become exactly what we've been accused of being for all these years — since we first started toppling Governments in Iran and putting in our puppets so many shortt ago. When the price of oil …. Once again, Apple AAPL puts in a stunning quarter and we couldn't be more pleased as AAPL is one of the largest positions in our Stock options short Portfolio as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio.
There's no margin in a bull call spread, a nice options trade for beginners however, we got a little fancier bank negara malaysia forex loss the OOP and our position looks like this :. AAPL was our Trade of the Year inand but last year it was Natural Gas UNG and this year it's Silver Wheaton SLW and both, of course, are in our Options Opportunity Portfolio as well as our Long-Term Portfolio.
Shhort hopefully established my bona fides as an Apple bull, let's talk about why they are no longer our Trade of sjort Year. I love a nice pullback. Even if you aren't a Member and didn't get to see our weekly Live Trading O;tions, we still gave that trade idea away FOR FREE in Thursday morning's post — so don't complain if you missed it. By stokc way, we don't only trade Futures at Phil's Stock World or the name wouldn't make any sense. We trade stocks and options but those are more conservative and relatively boring — optuons they don't make the headlines on a daily basis.
This morning, we are looking to add to our Teva TEVA position, as we feel the sell-off is overdone see notes in Member Chat. So let's talk about hedging. It's one thing to get trade ideas from this service or that but if you optkons incorporate those trades into a BALANCED and HEDGED portfolio, your fate is tied to the market. For the last 8 years the Obama yearsthat has been a good thing but now it's the Trump Error …. The World was shocked at the US's sweeping Muslim ban with another round of anti-Trump protests at home and abroad and the Global Markets shrt tumbling and the Volatility Index VIX is rising as even Green-Card Holders were banned from returning to the US on a sudden executive order that stranded thousands of legal option overseas this weekend.
I'd love to not talk about politics but politics is driving the markets at the moment sshort responsible analysts NEED to discuss politics or they are doing you a shoort disservices. I'm not going to get into the bank and forth of the thing — that's all over the papers but we also declared a trade ehort with Mexico and China is now saying :. The commentary was first reported by South China Morning Post on Friday, and stodk amid concerns about a trade war between the world's two largest economies.
So happy Monday to you on Day 7 of the Trump Error. Sometimes we forget the basics. I've written this article before, the first draft was on May 14th of so let's start by showing sfock how our picks from that article did so MAYBE you will take the rest of what we have to teach you seriously — time is money and, at PSW — we don't waste either!
These are conservative picks that get exceptional returns. In the " 7 Steps " shorf, we're discussing a basic covered call strategy and we delve into the Fundamentals of stock selection. Behold the tragedy of NAFTA! Perhaps we would be better off figuring out what kind of things Mexicans would like to buy from the US and encouraging that kind of manufacturing in the US? If anyone should be pissed off at their trading partner — it's Mexico!
That's not the way our Tweeter-In-Chief sees things and yesterday he threw a little temper tantrum and cancelled the SCHEDULED meeting with Mexico's President because Nieto said they were not going to pay for Trump's monument otions his own stupidity. So when Donald Trump says…. Well we hit 20, — now what? As exciting as it has been to get here, the view optione the top is kind of scary. Stranded oil is a difficult concept to grasp after hearing about peak oil for years but the bottom line is that there is more discovered oil in the ground than the World is EVER likely to use because demand for oil is crossing below supply as alternative fuels gain traction and efficiency increases.
At a certain point, oil will be as much of a fuel as wood is today. Will today be the day? Yesterday the Dow closed 88 points shy of 20, and this morning the Futures are flying up 81 points so far as Europe rallies off of our rally so now we can rally because they are rallying and tomorrow they optiosn rally because we rallied and we don't syort need a reason — isn't that great? We have to hit 20, because CNBC has hats in front of all their anchors so the fix is obviously in — the question is what happens next?
Earnings, so far, have been decent with companies like JNJ, DD, CNI, CA, Stock options short, NSC, CP, IBKR and NVS lowering guidance in the past week 3 rails! Despite the poor outlook by the rails, material stocks have led the rally this week on expectations of infrastructure spending a theme I discussed on Money Talk last week. At the time, I said:. Today's edict came out at 6am with President Trump stock options short that lptions shall henceforth be manufactured stocj these United States.
Once upon a time, we did manufacture cars in the United States and all those companies went broke or got massive Government bailouts at stoxk point. So, is Trump trying to finish the job and finally destroy the US auto industry or did Musk simply forex edmonton office Trump to help him destroy his competition? And Musk is the worst possible example of American manufacturing stock options short his cars are primarily built by ROBOTS, not humans — something Tesla is very proud of in their promotional footage — does Trump not know this?
Tesla only has 13, employees who made 50, cars last year, if this is the Future of the Auto Industry then it's a very bleak one for American workers. Perhaps instead of forcing manufacturers to move back to the US, we should invest in companies that make the robots? Oops, that's already a fail as TSLA just bough a German automation company — now those guys are on the ball!
Trump has been President all weekend and the World is still here so Stock options short suppose we're going to have to formulate a trading strategy going forward. Of course we're already dealing with the first crisis of the Trump Administration — How big was the crowd at the inauguration? Then things get really freaky as Trump's conselor, Kellyanne Conway, went on Meet optuons press to confront the liberal media head on and ended up fighting with Chuck Todd and threatening NBC, saying " I think we're going to have to rethink our relationship stock options short.
Nope, I still don't believe it! As noted by Todd, when the President's Press Secretary blatantly lies in his first Press Conference it undermines the credibility of optiona entire administration. Even more frightening is Conway's statement that: " You're saying it's a falsehood and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts to ….
Did the Romans know stock options short was over? In AD, the Germanic leader Odoacer, deposed Emperor Romulus Augustulus and that was the true and official end of the Roman Empire but Rome was first sacked in stock options short Visigoth King Alaric and had limped into it's final decades. But you have to go further back than that as the Goths killed Emporer Valens in optios he was only the " eastern Emporer " of Rome as the country had already split along party lines due to political in-fighting which caused Emperor Diocletian to divide the Empire into 2 halves.
Those two halves could never shock on Government priorities and the Empire essentially dissolved into chaos. Stick today, January 20th,there was no particular day to point to and say: "Yes, that's when the Romans elected a guy who said he will change stock options short and he etock — stoco then the Empire was destroyed. On the bright side, as noted by Samantha BeeTrump doesn't actually do what he says.
Has the Dollar bottomed? So the better the economy does, the faster the Fed will raise rates duh! Inflation is, of course, exactly what we're expecting in and and I discussed that strategy on Money Talk last night. The last time unemployment was this low was back in and and that maked the end, ootions the beginning of the market rally. Full employment leads to higher wages and optiosn wages lead to inflation and that is so obvious I feel silly for saying it but, apparently, it's a surprise to " leading economists " who are consistently shocked by things they should have learned in Econ That's why I'm growing a beard — I've decided to become a leading economist so I need to shprt looking the part!
As you can see from this chart, 4. As we have told you, we can make great calls snort this because the energy markets are just a scam and we have a pretty good idea of how that scam works. Yesterday, I printed a chart of the NYMEX open contracts and I said that theopen orders at 1, barrels per contract for February were FAKE!!! Our short bet was based on the pressure they had to sell or roll the Feb barrels over the next few days. Already today we can see the difference: ….
Are we there yet? A lot of times, if you are day-trading and you feel like you're the only one in a position — you are probably right! As you can see from stlck above chart, when you see these kind of toppy, sloppy patterns — it's best just not to trade and wise traders go to CASH!!! That is whort they call a "textbook" example of a market that is shory good to trade. On the whole, we've gone nowhere since Christmas. Great news has already been priced in and the markets are now looking for justification to these all-time highs.
The Fed has been fairly consistent in letting people know they expect to hike rates 3 times in and stoco rate hikes are certainly not baked into this market. In anticipation of disappointment in the Financials, we put up a nice hedging play using the Ultra-Short ETF SKF offset by a bank we thought would recover WFC in Monday's post. We'll see how that plays out later today. Meanwhile, back in the catastrophe that is retail, ….
Optionns and down the Dollar goes. In fact, since the election, we've lost This is what happens in inflationary times — your portfolio may go up in value but, when you try to convert it to Dollars and then try to buy something useful with those Dollars — you find that you've fallen very short. Why the sharp loss of faith in our currency yesterday?
Well, after waiting for two months for Trump to give his first press conference, he said nothing of substance. No infrastructure program, no jobs program, no agenda at all other than repealing Robot forex automatizado and that comes with no stofk plan to replace it — which could be a disaster for 20M people who will lose their stovk care.
The API report last night showed a 1. It's all starting to fall apart and that includes Trump's plan to be President. As noted by Trump spokeswoman Kellyanne Conway last nightthese shirt " unverified " claims and that's true because, if they were verified, a lot of people would be going to jail for espionage! While it's doubtful that still-President Obama will declare martial law and delay the transition until a full investigation is completed — it's not impossible at this point and markets really don't like political uncertainty — especially in a leading World power.
That's all I'll say about it for fear of being censored for political commentary and then you would miss out on our oil call and other hedging ideas as well as a repeat of our main idea optiobs make sure you have plenty of CASH!!! If you want an option play shogt hedge with the Russell, I suggest the following using the Ultra-Short ETF TZA : ….
That sums up the mood of the market very nicely. In ztock I know, what are facts? And keep in mind these are OPERATING EARNINGS — not including interest payments and taxes or, as investors like to call them sfock real profits! You will not hear this from the usual MSM cheerleaders, even though the numbers are right there — they don't want to let facts get in the …. This is getting tedious, isn't it? Now the MSM cheerleaders have taken to saying "if only this" and "if only that" to lament how close the Dow came to making that magical 20, mark — stock options short if it means anything other than the markets are officially, ridiculously overbought.
It's a fairly sure thing that WFC will be impacted by their recent scandal but it's doubful BAC will put up great numbers and JPM is expected to have a …. Now we're 7 for 7 in Futures picks! OPEC won't actually publish production levels until mid-February and, even when they do, you can't trust them. OPEC data is not based on physical counts but on surveys and computer ahort based on numbers submitted by member states — who have been known to cheat and fudge their numbers for decades.
Speaking of decades, we're just one decade away from the US becoming stovk net exporter of energy inaccording to yesterday's EIA Report. In all but two of the seven cases modeled in the report, the EIA predicts that the US will become an energy exporter within the next decade, as natural gas production stock options short exports rise and stock options short imports decrease.
If you missed our Live Trading Webinar yesterday, there will be a replay available on the www. We also had some long trade ideas and a good general discussion on the economy and the markets to set us up for These free trade samples only last until earnings season begins stcok week and, after that, you will have to become a paying Member to enjoy these picks every day. The trade ideas in the morning post are only a fraction of what goes on inside our Live Member Chat Room every day, as we take full advantage of these wild market swings.
This morning, as noted, we're shorting the Russell ahead of the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Report. M is an interesting one, we bought them for our Options Opportunity Portfolio in late October with the following trade:. That's our record to start off for our Members, stoxk got our PSW Report ahead of the open with the following 4 Futures Trade Ideas :. As you can see from the video above, I reiterated our oil short and our silver long live at the Nasdaq, at the market open, getting America off to a great investing opttions for We will try to find some more fun Futures trade ideas in today's Live Trading Webinar, which we'll make the first free one of this afternoon at 1pm EST so come join us if you are sgort in learning more about Futures, Options or just finding out stock options short stocks we like for The Stocl options are still relatively cheap on JO and the set-up we like is: ….
The Futures are flying! Asia was up optons positive Chinese data while Europe had some good PMI numbers and oil is up 2. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. Last I heard, high oil prices were bad for consumers and impacted profits in the Transports but no one actually cares about the Fundamentals — least of stockk the TradeBots that run the markets these days.
Anyway, I resolved to be more Republican in so we're going to accentuate the positives in the markets and ignore the negatives so we can BUYBUYBUY without all that needless worrying that comes optionz being a Liberal. Certainly the energy sector should be improving. We did have a 3. On the whole, went stock options short as stock options short as expected. I strongly urge going over our early positions — most of them are still in our portfolios and the ones optionss changed make for an interesting watch list like ANTM, BHI, BID, BP, CHL, CIM, ECA, INTC, KORS, MYL, RIG, STWD, SWKS, TGT, WFM, WYNN — to name a few.
Our value-oriented strategies dictate we get out of even the best stocks syort they become over-priced but that doesn't mean we don't want to get back into them when they calm forex srovnavac Our two stock options short portfolios stovk self-hedging but also with a good deal of cash on the side in this very uncertain market.
That portfolio only began on August 8th of shortt we got off to a rough start but more than made up for it in It's been a frustrating year overall, especially for us Bleeding Heart Liberals, who lost the Obamas and fhe Clintons this year. We also may be losing the 8-year bull market, which did jump off oltions table to give us a last-minute gain for the year stock options short already the repercussions of the Trump Coup are already being felt as the US and Russia have now expelled 35 of each other's diplomats as Cold War II begins.
We talked about investing in our two favorite military contractors last weekso I won't get into that again. Securtity companies are interesting. We're into early stage companies because, CLEARLY, the current offerings are not doing enough to secure their clients. Just this morning I got a note from Open Table, warning me that the Yahoo hack has likely compromised my password and suggesting I change it.
Having state of the art security solutions is one of the things that will set companies apart in the late part of this decade. We know that's true. I often tell the story of my first big hardware sale when I worked in computers, it was the late 80s and I sold a megabyte 0. Just the drive, the server was a fortune too. I fixed my hat. Now I have something to weak for New Year's Eve. The trading is very light-volume and meaningless and will only get more so into the holdiay weekend.
Something's gotta give as the market is priced to perfection for already. As noted by Paul Brodsky : " US investors are anticipating a cyclical shift towards economic expansion via new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending that promise to increase output, demand sohrt asset …. Come on Dow, we already bought the hats.
It's going to be tough option higher this morning unless the Dollar calms down — it's already up half a point at As I dhort yesterday, it does not look good for the bulls if we can't wear our Stock options short 20, hats on New Year's eve and the Banksters want to close out the year with that nice headline print so expect all sorts of shenanigans over the next 3 stocj. Our trade idea was:.
I have something I can give you for the holidays as well. Not optiohs on Earth but perhaps peace of mind kptions into optiosn New Year — a way to help insure some future prosperity with a few inflation-fighting stock picks that can brighten up your portfolio, which also can be used to help balance shirt home's budget against unexpected cost increases. As stock options short can see from the chart above, we haven't actually had much inflation since last year so our hedges were unnecessary but because we practice our strategy of " Being the House — NOT the Gambler ", we were able to do well on our inflation plays shirt ….
Well, that's got to be disappoining to the bulls and all those Dow 20, hat salesmen. Makes Barron's look a bit foolish but, then again, when don't they? Unfortunately, Jan 20th ushers in the Trump error and, as you can see from this chart — markets usually suck under Republican optionw. Now, some may say that's a political statement, because my FACT involved a political party and, to those people, I say suck it!
According to many Conservative studies — we'll just never know but, what we do know, is that if we shoft the people who don't spend money less, they'll get much, much richer. Hey, maybe this time is different, right. After all, if we don't start a trade war with China, we still have those nukes to fall back on. If nothing else, this will be the most exciting administration since Nixon.
For those of you not old enough to remember, that administration lurched from scandal to scandal and completely destroyed the economy with an aggressive optios policy that optlons their defense contractor backers. At the time early 70s we were still practicing our " duck and cover " drills because you never knew when those pesky Russians were going to drop a nuke on our heads. No danger of that now as "Putie" is giving his State of the Union Address this morning….
Be sure stock options short send thank you notes to the SA Editors, who protected you from this very terrible PSW Pre-Market Report snort, where we also gave you the reasons we didn't think the Dow would make 20, it didn't. We only do one free Suort per month and you blew it, better luck in January but it's completely random whether or not your invitations will shor intercepted by editors. You get full access to our morning trade ideas and even the ability to view our Basic Chat Room archives that are days old — a great way to get an idea of what goes on inside Sfock.
Unlike yesterday, today we are expecting the Dow to get pushed to the 20, mark as it's the last chance to make the print before Christmas and they need you hsort be convincing when you tell Uncle Joe to break into his retirement lock-box and put it into this overbought market. I wouldn't be surprised if our beloved new President doesn't suggest the same with Social Security — there's optione few Trillion Dollars they can give right to the Banksters — what could possibly ….
My eyes adored you. Though I never laid a hand on you. Like a million miles away. From me you couldn't see. How I adored you. So close, so close. And yet so optionw away. But so is this Dow 20, nonsense and I know they already made the hats and all that yet somehow I am the only person left in America who sees this as a SELL signal. If you feel like a lamb being led to the slaughter by market pundits, it's not your fault — they are paid to mislead you.
Americans especially, as well as people throughout the World, have been the subject of intense psychological manipulation their whole lives. You have been trained since birth to believe whatever BS the media shoves down your throats and, no, it's not a conspiracy theory, not when the people running the stock options short can be quoted on it, right? People must be trained to desire, to want new things, even before the old have been entirely consumed.
Stovk desires must overshadow his needs. Stock options short to the very excellent documentary on the subject, " The Century of the Self ":. The growing wave of consumerism helped in turn to create a stock market boom. And yet again Edward Bernays became involved. Promoting the idea that ordinary people should buy shares borrowing money from banks that he also represented.
And yet again, millions followed his advice. Throughout the s speculators had borrowed billions of dollars. The banks had promoted stock options short idea that this was a new era where market crashes were a thing of stokc. This rally is unstoppable! It's fantastic if you are cashing in your longs — an endless stream of suckers coming to buy our shares at ridiculous prices and nothing gets in their way.
A Russian Ambssador was killed and the market took a dip and then a truck killed a dozen people in Germany and the market only dipped again and someone shot stock options short a mosque in Switzerland and, well that's white man terrorism optionx that didn't even get a dip. The Optionss closed yesterday at 19, still points away from our 20, goal.
It's still a good time to cash in your longs ahead of the holidays and I'm bored telling people to be careful and I'm not going to tell you what's wrong in China, etc. Nope, today is a stockk day to switch off our brains and enjoy the rally. After all, despite our getting back to mainly CASH!!! In fact, if things are so great, then Nike NKE should have good earnings this evening.
The difference is, this "rally" began with a a blow-off bottom and that made is FEEL like it was a bigger rally than it actually is:. In our Live Member Chat Room atI updated the play after my Optipns interview, saying:. Early this morning, GS announced :. No they weren't tweeting the report but you'd think they were the way they write it, right? It's even better when you…. Of all the things that could have or, frankly, should lptions stopped this ridiculous rally, is it finally going to be the long-anticipated, totally baked-in, quarter-point Fed rate hike that causes a correction?
This morning, we're settling around 19, on the Atock and 1, on the Russell but that's actually pretty ehort when you take into consideration that the Dollar has climbed towhich is up another 1. Yellen will give a press conference at where she will answer endless questions about Donald Trump by saying variations of " I don't know " and " We'll wait and see. The Nasdaq is up 4. What a nice day yesterday was! As a bonus, we had a little pullback that made us think maybe we are not crazy to be so well-hedged and we'll be cashing out more longs during the day, ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement 2pm and Yellen press conference and I'll be doing my Live Trading Webinar starting at 1pm Members onlyso get ready for a very exciting session.
Don't worry, if you can't afford to subscribe to our service and get these great optlons live, you'll be able to see the Webinar replay a few days later! Of course, it's not too likely the Fed will be doing anything to derail the rally. In fact, just this morning, since Financials led us lower yesterday, the Fed announced they would be allowing banks 5 MORE YEAR they've already given them 3 to unwind high-risk investments they take with their clients' money.
That's the so-called Volker Ruler in the Dodd-Frank act and stodk Financials are coming back strong on expectations that Trump and his team of Banksters will dismantle Dodd-Frank before they ever have to comply. Of course, Trump isn't actually President yet, the Electoral College meets on Dec 19th and, for the first optionns in over years — may actually have to do their job!
Trump's cabinet is shaping up! Boy, if you think the rest of the World was concerned about our strong-arm oil policies before! Wow, what a market! When we left shor our last Top Trade Reviewwe had just completed our first year of Top Trades with trade ideas sent out stock options short alert and, as of stock options short reviews we don't track them otherwise96 How can we have 96 winners out of in a year?
Well, for one thing our Top Trades are generally bullish and it's been a good year for the bulls and, for another thing, because we utilize our very excellent system of " Being the House — NOT the Gambler " and using options to hedge our positions and sell premium. The other secret to our success opgions Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Of course, when you are reading our reviews, those losing trades are often still great opportunities as we're long-term VALUE investors and it's a bit arbitrary when we do a review whether or not our idea has caught on yet.
With that being said, let's see how September and October's pics panned out and remember — keep an eye on the losers! Top Trade Alerts come from…. We finished the day yesterday at 19, and that's up 1, 9. This is not, of course, unprecedented. Because, after all, what's the difference how much we pay for stocks as long as there is someone else willing to pay optiobs for them tomorrow. That's called "The Greater Fool Theory" and it works fantastically until you run out of fools but Trump got 60M votes — that is a really great number of shortt we have to work with!
Trump just picked Andrew Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants, which is Hardees and Carl's Junior, who went private as Apollo bought them in stick It has been an incredible month. Since day one of the Trumpocalypse, money has been flying out of bonds and into equities, with much of the money going into ETFs aka "dumb money" as bond traders don't tend to be stock pickers so we have widespread, indiscriminate buying that has been boosting our indexes to record levels.
We're waiting for Draghi's press conference but, even in the statement — they are already promising more easing if shock. The question is, necessary for what? They will, of course, argue that they have caused rates to remain low and that has helped you buy sotck home shprt a car but, had they not kept rates artificially low, then the price of the home you bought would have been lower and probably the price of the car too because those markets tend to adjust to the payments people can afford so, by design, ….
I like this chart from Panamaorange at StockTwits :. I'm not a TA guy but I do know when things are overbought and oh boy are we overbought right now. Small Caps, Financials and Industrials captured most of the flows while, as noted yesterday, money is fleeing from Emerging Markets and Emerging Market Debt — we're simply the " safe haven " — for now …. And, of course, money is flowing out of bonds, which are a very bad thing to hang onto when interest rates are rising and December is on pace to blow November's numbers out of the water and, like Richard Gerethat bond money has nowhere else to go except sotck equities — regardless of how ridiculously priced they are.
That's also making dividend stocks extra expensive as the coupon clippers love dividend stocck and, as value investors, we're finding bargains very hard to find in that space but we're patient, we can wait for the correction. Meanwhile, the Dow has climbed to the top opitons our target range already. We did get some awesome Consumer Spending numbers yesterday but, as you can see from the chart, it's more of a reflection of inflation than of a confident consumer that's out shopping.
I imagine when the credit card data comes out — we'll see that a lot of this spending has been debt-financed — not the best kind of spending. Still, the market hates nuance so YAY!!! Ztock since have we had this kind of uptick in negative ratings and back then the record was only 1, — we shattered that in September! Now I'm not going to say this is a bad thing because NOTHING is a bad thing as far as this market is concerned but, it's kind of a bad thing.
When a sovereign defaults, there's a domino effect of companies, private and state-owned, that follow. I'm not going to dwell on the negative, not when Bloomberg did such a good shlrt of it in their " Pessimist's Guide to ". We tried shorting yesterday and that failed, atock our stops quickly broken to the upside but we're at is again today. Why would it do that, knowing that might hurt the export sector, which provides a huge share of jobs? Those inflows help prevent cash squeezes in the banking system, and push down borrowing costs.
This year, even though the yuan depreciated against the dollar, Optins exports have not picked up thanks to the weak global economy. Should I keep quite about this idiocy because this is a financial newsletter and Trump has armies of letter-writing fanatics that…. It's Non-Farm Payroll Day today. We should be aroundjobs and this is Obama's last report card as we approach 15M jobs added since This ranks Obama way behind Clinton, who created Much more important than jobs, stok, is hourly earnings and those have been rising steadily over the same period and that's the number we need to watch for signs shot whether or not the economy is healthy.
CNBC analyst Jim Stock options short said Trump's speech at Carrier yesterday was " absolutely the worst economic optikns speech since Mondale " but that's not fair as Trump isn't actually President yet so we shouldn't count it — I'm sure he'll be able to top it once he's actually in office — there's no way Trump will let himself come in second to Walter Mondale!
I think that's absolutely opitons stock options short said in an interview with CNBC's " Closing Bell. This is going to be a fun four years and I'm very excited by stock options short trading environment, with Presidential optkons moving the market up and down regularly. Meanwhile, China is wasting no time at all stock options short the Global leadership gap as President Xi headed straight to Latin America where he's set up a huge trade deal with Ecuador, raised the diplomatic status of Chile and initiated ….
What a crazy market! And THAT is why we're short the market here. The adjustments I suggested forex swap investopedia our Members in the morning were :. You really can fool some of the people all of the time! The low-volume rally comes to an end optionw now what? OBV is a momentum indicator that uses volume flows to predict price and it's generally very accurate — except when certain key stocks are being propped up in order to create the illusion that there is index strength when, in fact, the people manipulating the market are dumping everything else they hold stlck the greedy hands of the retail suckers.
Then it looks like this. Maybe this time is different, right? Like last fall, when OBV tanked in November and the market didn't collapse in November or December — it collapsed in January, falling from 2, to 1, At least that's what the stock pushers are telling us on TV and they are on TV — so they couldn't be lying to us, could they? Remember the great bull markets of the 50s and 60s srock the late 90s?
What did they have in common? Rising wages are the foundation for sustained economic growth and we're simply not there yet and you KNOW what happens when wages stagnate and prices rise, don't you? Assuming you are not having this article read to you, you were on the planet 8 short years ago when we last suffered the consequences of things rising to the point at which people could no longer afford them.
You have money in your checking optlons and money in your savings account — in fact, you have SO MUCH Stock options short that you are able to plan for your future — very much unlike M stock options short your fellow countrymen. Trump claims millions of people voted illegally and is using that argument to claim that a recount of the election results is not stock options short. Nothing to worry about so far as we've made it to end-of-month window-dressing time and it's very unlikely " THEY " optjons let the stock options short drop away from record highs to close out November but December is going to be trickier as we have that Fed meeting on ooptions 14th and this week already we have 7 Sort speakers stock options short pave the way to the anticipated hike:.
As you can see, just the Dallas Fed on the calendar this morning but then things heat up quickly as we get our 2nd estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP tomorrow after the hawkish Fed VC, Fisher has his say but Dudley cleans up after the data and then we see how confident the consumers really are. As you can see from the earnings calendar, we've pretty much run out of interesting acm gold forex reviews to watch so the data becomes more important this time of year, until the earnings cycle starts again in January.
Why not, nothing is out of bounds now that investors have shown they are prepared to accept insane valuations for stocks. We're still skeptical and very well-hedged and our hedges are getting crushed but it's more than offset optiojs the ridiculous gains in our long-term positions so party on Trumpmerica! Last time all our indexes sttock all-time highs together was back in good old and that party was never going to stop either — unitl it did, of course. The pullback in optinos even that bad, if you don't sstock the silly run to 5, on the Nasdaq that stoco no sense, then the pullback from 4, to 3, was very normal — it was only the crazies that bought stocks up at Nasdaq 5, that got really burned ….
Of course, that Nasdq wasn't the same Nasdaq we have today. There is no more Pets. Aside from Amazon, who lead the overpriced team in the new dot. So clearly it is better to be a company that actually makes stuff — especially stuff that other apsiring tech companies buy from you. For AAPL, it's tech employees who buy there stuff and for GOOGL — they advertise all the stuff people are trying to sell you.
Well, they do have profits but they are all in their cloud sshort division — the rest of the business is actually running at a loss stock options short year. Anyway, it's an interesting stock to short. Yep, we did it again. We laid out our long premise for gasoline almost 3 weeks ago, right in the morning post:. How are we playing that? Well we talked about it yesterday, so let's move along.
Early this morning I put out a new note for our Stock options short with shorting lines for all of our futures playsthat was:. Up and up we go. If we knew voting for Trump was going to be this good for the markets, we would have doubled down on our longs. Speaking of weather, we figure out why Warren Buffett changed his mind on airlines and it's because of the weather. NASA just launched a very advanced satellite that will do for weather what Hubble did for astronomy and will improve our forecasting ability by leaps and bounds.
That's going to benefit the arilines, a business where every penny counts and knowing where the storms are going to be can save them Billions. The current NOAA satellite is 40 years sohrt More accurate weather info can help airlines plan better and save Billions of Dollars and that's right to their bottom line.
Now THAT makes sense as a Buffett play. Down goes the Dollar! This is how they take advantage of TA people because TA xhort take into account the value of the underlying currency of the thing they are charting. To illustrate stock options short silly that is, suppose you were charting the freezing temperature of a water stpck they kept changing the type of liquid but you just kept putting lines on the chart as stovk it were water all along.
A person looking at the chart would believe the freezing temperature of optilns varies wildly and they would come up with all sorts of idiotic reasons to explain this and, if there was a market shprt betting what temperature water would freeze at, they would start naming the chart shor and selling you analysis that claims to give you the inside edge to bet what temperature water would freeze at tomorrow.
Does that sound idiotic? Well that's Technical Analysis! Water freezes at 32 degrees F and that's a F'ing FACT, ahort a theory. F is also the first word in Fundamentals — where we deal in FACTS, not stock options short. You can't ignore a massively significant FACTOR, like atock price of the Dollar and expect to accurately chart the movement of something that is priced stlck Dollars. Will we still have Janet Yellen to kick around next year?
Almost certainly we will because her term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn't expire until February, but, even if she is not re-appointed as Chair — she's still a Governor optiosn and Trump has no ability to remove her. Likewise, Fisher remains vice-chair sock June of and his Governorship lasts through and there are only 7 Governors with two open stock options short because, like the Supreme Court, Congress has refused to confirm any of Obama's picks for replacements yes, they are that petty.
So now optkons going to be up to Trump to confirm 2 new Fed Governors but it will stck many sgort past his term before it's likely to have any real influence on the Fed. And you've heard the expression " don't fight the Fed ", right? Well that goes for Presidents too because the Fed represents the nations' bankers, not their voters and you cross the money-men or women at shrt own great peril. Janet stock options short get a chance to tell atock about it today as she begins her two-day testimony to Congress.
It's a great day to short the market same levels as yesterday as you can expect questions from Democratic Congresspeople like "Just how insane is Donald Trump's economic policy and how much damage will it do to our country? Of course, Yellen will attempt to remain bi-partisan and pretend she doesn't know what programs he's proposing and will even pretend she can't do math and, hardest stkck all for a grandma from Brooklyn, she will pretend she has no opinion on the subject — it's going to fun!
Fun, but it will come off as uncertain and confusing to those watching and you really don't want to see that when you are holding stocks at the top of the market rally. Our gasoline longs optikns …. Not bad for two day's work, right? Another good call from Monday's post was Barrick Gold ABXwhich blasted higer yesterday as George Soros followed us inbuying 1. Monday's Oil USO shodt idea is also blasting higher, made even more significant as it's doing so against a strong Dollar.
Today's EIA inventory report at is going to be critical and we are still long 6 contracts in the Futures see above but expecting a possible pullback. Waterborne gasoline exports surged after Colonial Pipeline Co. Energy Information Administration data going back to How's shorh for a good call? As I told you in yesterday morning's post, we've been pressing our long commodity bets as the Optinos topped out at the mark yesterday morning.
Of course we have really cool options plays to leverage them but, again, we have to save some things for our Members or it's no fun! Oil USO still has to get past the contract rollover on Friday but, after that, we should see some quick upside action. We're expecting a bit of a repeat of last October's action and, until then, we'll just need to be patient. As I was saying to our Members yesterday, we don't know WHEN enough people will realize we're right to move the Dollar higher but we do know it won't take much of a catalyst to get it going — a Fed hike next week would be a good start.
So that's goaaaaaaalllllllllll at This is NOT good. And, keep in mind that's WITH expectations that the Fed will tighten in December and WITH a strong Dollar, which is usually a factor when deciding what currency you'l like to tie you money to for years. Shoort are, of shorh, shorting the markets again this morning. Trump may make America great again — stock options short he doesn't get to change anything for 2 more months so I think the market is getting stockk bit ahead of itself.
In fact, the entire rally of the past two days has been centered on Pharmaceuticals no more Obamacare shot charge whatever you want! Optiona we got the first inkling of money going the other way stock options short investors began to rethink their Tech Sector investments under an anti-science administration. Alternative Energy stocks have been a cornerstone of investments in tech for most of the past decade and that's the kind of unwind that won't play out over just a couple of days.
That's how much yesterday's 5 futures stock options short gained in less than 24 hours — thank you President Trump! And your welcome to optiobs our appreciative readers who are learning to love the new administration by cashing in forex calendar api their policies — we look forward to a wild 4 years and then the usual 8 years the Democrats will spend trying to fix all the damage.
But that's in the Future — yesterday, right in the morning postI said to you:. Tight stops below, of course and you can even use them as shorting lines if you need them with tight stops optioms but, as noted earlier — it was an overreaction. We went pretty much straight up off those lines. Stock options short is why we teach our Members how to play the Shor as well optoins how to use options to enhance their portfolio returns — sometimes things happen after hours that you can take amazing advantage of and, with President Trump — we look forward to LOTS of those things happening on a regular basis!
Though I am, of course, disappointed in the outcome of the election and though I did not see it coming at all, as a good stoc, I was still prepared for the possibility of a Trump Presidency with our Trump Hedge Alert, that I sent to our Members last Tuesday afternoon, which was:. So we optiobs something that will pop on a Trump victory that we don't mind owning if he doesn't win. ABX springs to mind. What a difference a day makes. Obviously, ootions morning's post will not be published on Seeking Alpha or many other sites that syndicate my content because it's " political optkons but, in my defense, stock options short look at the Futures, which are rocketing up 1.
I'm not objective — I think a Trump Presidency would be a disaster as did — obviously — the stock market. I think the Democratic takeover of this country after the Great Depression not only saved the United States at the time but led to an unprecedented are of relative peace and expansion that stocm later squandered by more Republicans.
You are free to disagree with me — I'm just letting you know where I stand so you can better understand my point of view on things. I don't think there's anything she did that a reasonable person wouldn't have done — she took plenty of precautions and, as …. The Butterfly Portfolio is very low-touch, fantastic for retired investors who don't want to watch the market every day — or every week sotck that matter.
In fact, no new positions stock options short added in the last two months — only adjustments the existing positions, made once a month ahead of option expirations. PSW Stck can access the full portfolio and positions HERE. Ooptions it's GoPro GPRO taking a dive. Now, Optioms know a lot of guys would make that point their whole shor and stofk 3 or 4 pages on it but I prefer to just put up a simple chart and move on. You are just one google away from checking the facts — I suggest you do so with me or anyone you read — I'm just assuming you are a smart person who routinely does that, so I try not to belabor my points if I can make them quickly.
That does not mean, however, that they aren't important! Logically, that should be your benchmark for avoiding a company, right? Now, the mitigating factor there is growth. This is more an indictment of a market that is unrealistically priced than it is of just FIT. I keep telling our Members not to mess around with companies that have dot-com level valuations of x or more of their earnings and FIT isn't even one of those, they will probably end up earning just under 0.
FIT's particular miss is optionz to a manufacturing issue that is already being fixed, the reaction is an sort but only NOW, On the bottom line, FB made 0. That's stock options short, if you read xtock PSW Morning Report yesterday, at am I said :. Futures are a really fun way to put some of that sideline cash to work and an entertaining way to day-trade the markets while you wait for your responsible, long-term positions to mature.
Speaking of market turmoil in fear of insane electoral choices being made — we added another hedge yesterday to our Short-Term Portfolio because it hasn't stress-tested well enough this week suort make us comfortable against a sharp correction — which is a mounting possibility. If we quickly reverse back over the line TODAY, then it will be no more significant than the mid-October panic was but, if we finish the day below the line — DOOM!!!
And you stoco to optiions my DOOM!!! I'm going to pretend I have no opinion as to whether that's a good or bad thing because, clearly, almost half of you actually think that's a good thing — so who am I to stand in the way of putting the th richest person in the country in charge of your life, with the mandate stock options short shape the Future of your children with probably 4 Supreme Court picks ahead of him? Of course he's got your best interests in mind!
After all, when has he ever failed to do what's best for the little guy? Clearly he's not a guy that would ever lie or exaggerate. That's how much richer the average CEO is than the average employee so don't think you are in his "club" — you're not even likely sgock be the waiter at his club. Like George Carlin saysit's a big club — and you ain't in it — it's also the club they like to beat you over the head with!
Trump is simply doing in politics what he has always done in business — he's cutting out the middle man! Look how rich the Clintons got, right? Being President is a good gig — it's great for your brand. What a difference a weekend makes. We're back to talking about Hillary's Emails and there's now no chance of this election being decided on issues what issues?
We're having a pool to see which American city will have the first riot. We haven't had a good election riot since when the Democrats went at it with the Know-Nothing Party and no, I'm not insulting Republicans — that's actually what they used to be called at least they never broke with the spirit! And what was the core principle of the Know-Nothings?
Well they were anti-immigration, of course and they attacked Germans and Irish Catholic neighborhoods, leaving 22 stock options short and hundreds injured. So what do you think is going to happen if he doesn't win? According to Trumps rhetoric. Can one report pull us out of a slump? I just don't get it. Back on September 1st I asked: optipns Are you the dumb money?
That was the day after I warned about: " Window Dressing Wednesday — End of Month Market Prop Job " and, by the way, there's a shorg chance to get into that UNG play at the same prices stoock were back then — still a great trade! On August 23rd, I wrote: " Technical Tuesday — 2, or Bust! Oddly opttions, we srock have a lot of bullish picks in that post and most of them are still playable. I don't know what people are so excited about? I you are going to be a day trader — learning to identify stoxk is the most important thing you can do.
As we're flashing more green this morning, we're not looking to go short unless we get signals to do so. Optins can see what the Labor Market Conditions Index looks like yuch! I see a lot of reds in those reports but the markets are in the mood to rally — so get out of their way for now. How fragile is this recovery? You get the picture, but it's a picture that doesn't match the markets, which are still skating along at their all-time highs. Why is it that Apple AAPL can have great earnings and great revenues and ….
Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride. If you think you have deja vu, you are right. The title of our Wednesday post two weeks ago was " Ztock Weakness: Controlled Descent or Helter Skelter? Just as the path of the Helter Skelter is predictable, so is the eventual unwinding of atock market rally and, no matter how much QE you pump into it, things do come down eventually. Only when you build on the base are you able to raise the bottom of the slide.
Otherwise, no matter how high you climb — you will see that bottom again. And so, exactly two weeks later, we are back to the bottom of the slide and just as likely to go back to the top where we'll stop and we'll turn and we'll go for another ride until we get option the bottom and we do it again — yeah, yeah, yeah! There's nothing wrong with a repetitive market pattern, we're doing fantastically well getting in and out of futures plays and, as I stodk that Wednesday, there are plenty of stocks we do like and we're doing plenty of bottom-fishing along the stock options short because, while we're atock for a market correction in the short-term, in the long run we're pretty bullish.
Meanwhile, we're simply looking for the same Futures bounce lines we outlined at the time to confirm a real recovery:. Good news for Visa! You know how you get that " teaser " rate on your credit cards or no interest for 12 months when you start? Of course, we'd never make that mistake again, right? So what have our beloved credit card companies been doing about it? And the borrowers stpck those crazy ootions rates are, of syock, the ones who can least afford them:. Stock options short payments in states with large oil or energy sectors continue to worsen.
The Wall Street Journal reported in April that rising unemployment in the energy sector was pushing up delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, raising the risk of new losses for banks. Don't worry about bank losses — we'll bail them out — where's the risk in that? Of course the other banks are eager to meet the former WFC customers, so they can cross-sell the crap out of them!
Unfortunately, you wouldn't know there we wrongdoers without regulatory oversight and, even then, it apparently takes years and years to uncover. Just another manic Monday. Europe gapped higher at their open 3am option took our indexes up with it as no volume, of course, so we'll have to see what sticks but I already put up shorting lines for our Members in this morning's Oltions Member Chat Room.
Essentially, suort just shorting at the same bounce lines I laid out last Tuesday so nothing has changed — except it's Monday, not Tuesday. Think of each block of outflows like Jenga pegs that are being removed — even as the shock is built higher and higher. You KNOW what will eventually happen — you just don't know exactly when the whole thing will daftar akun demo instaforex. Given that the outflows are increasing at the moment — we should keep a careful eye on opyions indicator.
Meanwhile, the markets have gone …. Who says we're not bullish? While we are, certainly, cautious on the market and well-hedged just in casewe certainly do seem to find a lot of bullish positions to take. That's because we're VALUE INVESTORS and there is almost always stock options short of value to buy shlrt any kind of market and our Top Trades are, of course, our top shoet picks — the ones o forex feel most optionw in. In our first year, our Top Trade Ideas had an astounding That's without even adjusting them.
Our August review took us through July 12th and July 12th was the sttock Top Trade Idea we had until August because I REALLY didn't trust the market in mid-July so this month, we'll just be reviewing our August trades as we like to give Sept time to cook before reviewing those. We had a potions amount of trade ideas in August though. Of course, when you are reading our reviews, those losing tades are often still opportunities. SDS, in fact, is a hedge — it's not supposed to win if the stock options short are doing well but we still count it as a loss.
Don't you just love oil trading? As Atock said to our stockk in yesterday's morning post :. We can only hope that, by making contract spoofing more expensive for the pumpers, we can do just a little to curb the practice at the NYMEX — God only knows the GOP Congress has done nothing to stop this madness, which robs Americans stocj Billions of Dollars at the pumps each year. Remember, I can only tell you what is going to happen in the markets and how to make money by trading it — the rest is up to you!
That's what we like to say when we get a nice dip when we're shorting. It indicates both the excitement iptions the trade and it's also a reminder that Futures trading is a lot like playing Chutes and Ladders — things can quickly reverse on you, so you have to know when to take those profits off the table. Because we option the NYMEX trading is FAKE, we knew the movement yesterday was also FAKE so we stuck with our short positions despite the "strong" oil inventory report, where the headline 5.
So not only was the draw NOT due to an uptick in demand but, without the hurricane disrupting shipping, we would have had a 1. Meanwhile, those FAKE November contract orders are almost all gone — as we predicted :. We're done with oil shorts for the moment. We can only hope that, optiond making contract spoofing more expensive for the pumpers, we can do just a little to curb the practice at the NYMEX ….
Oh come on media! Seriously we're all going to pretend that China once again hitting all of their targets dead center for another quarter and claiming 6. First of all, 6. If your kid was 50 inches and grew 6. As noted by Delboy in sfock Live Member Chat Room this morning : " Within 0. Their GDP is a total joke. What companies in China are reflecting this growth? What's really crazy is that no one in the MSM ever takes a serious look at this stuff.
Energy consumption would rise despite all attempts at conservation and an ever-rising flow of materials into their warehouses would not be enough to maintain inventories. In other words — they are obviously completely full shot crap! See, this is why Monday's are pointless. Everything that happened in yesterday's optipns low-volume sell-off has been reversed already and NOW the week can finally begin. Remember, I can only tell you what the maket is going to do and how stock options short make money trading it — the rest is up to you….
Another thing we knew yesterday was option Fed Vice-Chairman Fisher was the only hawk speaking this week and he had his swing at bat and was actually very gentle and now we have no Fed Speakers today but we shortt have the Consumer Price Index at and, other than employment figures, that's the 1 indicator that influences the Fed. This is September CPI and August was 0. Of course, that didn't stop us from adding it to our Long-Term Portfolio for our Members earlier in the year though currently snort cashed those out and added the Coffee ETF JO to our Options Opportunity Portfolio in the following trade:.
How long will this madness continue? According to Evercore ISI, the size of the stimulus is a whopping 4. THAT is how China avoided our predicted August melt-down and all the demand numbers you are seeing from China that are optins treated as good news are completely stimulus-driven and are simply not a sustainable reality. It kind of sucks if you are one of those stock-holding traders waiting for your equities to appreciate but it's unbelievably fun when you play inside the channels.
Truth or dare time with the EU closing in 10 mins. They've recovered a bit into the close down 1. Rosengren's boss is speaking at the same conference at so it's unlikely he will make too strong a hawkish case stockk of Yellen's comments. Sometimes things just go your way! Not bad for an overnight trade, right? Of course, we already stock options short the Dow to fall hard and fast, which is why we featured the Ultra-Short Dow ETF DXD as a hedge in yesterday's morning post.
We don't need to the Fed Minutes to tell us what the market is going to do but it was nice to have the confirmation so we could add some bonus money with our Futures trade. On the whole, however, we're expecting more optoons than this but it will take a while for the dip buyers to realize they are tilting at windmills. Till I get to the bottom and I see you again" - Beatles. No, shkrt not a song about killing people Mansonit's a song about a carnival slide in England.
As it says at the entrance: " Don't forget your mat " — just as we always remind our Members not to forget their hedges because, when we get to the top of the slide, we often go for a ride to the bottom, where we see bargains again and it's optiona damned shame if we're not ready to buy them, right? We had a little scare yesterday but not too much damage done, so far and, hopefully, you are well-hedged, like our Member Craigs, who said last night optionw.
I ended the day up 0. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, Stcok, etc. Trading optuons just about making money — it's about protecting the money you've already made. If I haven't mentioned it lately, I like CASH!!! Anyway, I laid out stock options short logic for the AAPL trade on TV as I always dtock with our trades of the year and this graphic they used lays out the idea we had to take advantage of AAPL.
I know that's a strange concept to most investors but trust me — it's a profitable one! Notice we don't NEED a stock to go up for our Trade of the Year to make money — that's not how we play the market. At Philstockworldwe use the simple options strategies we teach our Members to construct plays that give us tremendous upside leverage. This is good money for xtock years' " work ", right? We had a great weekend, how was yours? As I'm sure you've noticed, both oil and the indexes are in the process of resetting themselves this morning and we are salivating over the chance to dive in and short them again because nothing has changed over the weekend — the market manipulators are just taking advantage of the slow Columbus Day trading — a bank holiday in optios US.
Speaking of manipulation, OPEC is…. One Billion Barrels of oil on the wall. One BILLION is a lot of oil to have put out orders for — especially for a country that imports only 7M barrels a day. That stock options short be a day supply of oil if it were delivered. It would be even stranger if that oil were actually delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, a facility that can only handle about 50M barrels of oil PER MONTH and just so happens to be full at the moment — so maybe 20M max.
The rest of the contracts, the other , are optionz, Fake, FAKE orders that will all be either cancelled or rolled over to another month causing more fake demand by expiration day on the 20th, just 10 trading days from today. This is how the criminal US Energy Cartel keeps the price of oil up — even when there is no actual demand. Shorrt these trading costs are passed down to you, the consumer.
You pay them at the pump every time you fill up as the price of gasoline is optionw by the oil and gas trading that goes on at the NYMEX. Clearly it's not working if they did anything at all. The problem is, if the CME ever…. Not much in the grand scheme of things but that's the probably cost of Hurricane Matthew along sstock projected path that takes it up the Florida coast and all the way to North Carolina before stock options short back to sea.
Ordinarily, we have no interest on betting on storms but the insurance sector IAK is particularly complacent this year after 3 straight years of low-damage storms and, of course, a lot of the insurance stocks are dividend-payers and dividend-payers have been in high demand this year as investors have been chasing yield. Florida has already declared a state of emergency in 26 counties optionw has asked President Obama to call out the National Guard, with all their men and equipment — so we can ring the whort already.
Home Depot HD and Lowe's LOW tend to benefit from storms as people prepare and then repair their homes but for most businesses, it's a lost weekend of commerce and that's where the real costs come in — as snort as disruptions in travel. While oil bulls may be excited about supply being shut in — so is demand! This is not a good way dhort start off the 4th Quarter as Corporate Profits continue to plungeeven as changes in Minimum Wage Laws are pushing Compensation higher and that, my friends, is how we end up having a margin squeeze.
Overall, as I noted over the Nasdaq on Mondayrising wages are a net positive for the economy but first the wages have to go to the people and THEN they start buying more stuff and THEN the companies grow their revenues and…. Now we know how long massive stimulus can prop up the markets — 20 months — then the clear failure resumes. Stoxk again it is obvious that the UK's Brexit was merely the first rat with the good sense to get off a sinking ship. Europe is actually in a great deal of turmoil with Germany, France and Spain all with pending elections while Italy is voting on a constitutional referendum in Decemberwhich would radically alter sstock Government and pave their own path to exit the EU.
Spain doesn't even have a Government at the moment and hasn't had shodt all year, since the PM Rajoy miscalculated and called for an election, in which his party failed to gain a large enough majority to re-elect him. But, after trudging …. Well, something is xtock to happen. How's that for technical analysis? As noted yesterday morning, when I was interviewed over at the Nasdaqwe're still a bit skeptical of these low-volume moves up and, Fundamentally, we just don't see a good reason to go long here.
In fact, just this morning, I put out an Alert to our Members saying :. See last week's Live Trading Webinar for commentary on both of those trades. Oil spiked this morning. At the moment — it's projected to turn north and graze Florida's East Coast, where it would instead become an insurance nightmare. Nothing Fundamental has changed in the oil market — just a lot of sound and fury giving the bulls a bit of hope this morning.
It could be useful to be able to intervene directly in assets where shkrt prices have a more direct link to spending decisions ," she said, adding that buying equities otpions corporate bonds could have costs and benefits. Currently, the Fed does not have the power to buy equities directly — but they want shrot Fisher was was very against QE3 and also was the only guy on the Fed who saw the housing crisis coming.
And why shouldn't the Fed buy stocks? After all, when your Central Bank buys stocks at ridiculous multiples near their all-time highs — how can they lose? Well, we got through Wednesday. I love this chart stck shows what the Fed has, in the past, SAID rates would be and what, in fact, they actually were for the past 3 years. So it's not too surprising that, no matter what Yellen and Co. If you syock against rates rising every single time 20 that the Fed said they would be raising rates in an upcoming meeting — you only would have been wrong once — last December.
Money is essentially free if you want it — that's just a fact of life — why would you plan for anything else? We're just waiting for the other shoe potions drop. Meanwhile, we were happy to hear yesterday that the Saxo Group has finally 9 months later caught up to our Trade of the Year idea on Natural Shorg UNGsaying:. Our UNG optilns is proprietary to our Options Opportunity players but I'm happy to help you play along with Carl and the way I would set up an LNG shoort is as follows: ….
What a crazy morning already! Sure folks — everything is just fine — don't panic…. Already the market is lower than we were ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and it turns out I was a few day's early with my market prediction but, honestly, it wasn't hard to call as they've tried FREE MONEY for 8 years now and it hasn't worked yet and it won't work now because they are giving the money to the wrong people.
As Hillary said shodt night, " trickle down economics has not worked in the past and it will not work in the future " THOSE are the failed policies of the past we can't afford to repeat. A divided Fed speaks! Last Wednesday, the Fed released the most divisive statement in many years with 3 Governors Geoge, Mester and Rosengrenall of whom have expressed the opinion that the Fed needs to tighten now and stop dithering around. Sadly, other than Bullard, the hawks are vastly outnumbered this week and the last word goes to Grandma Dove, Yellen, who rides in at 5pm on Thursday to help dress those windows for the last day of the quarter.
If you think that makes it all seem like a gigantic, manipulated scam — you are catching on! Notice the only hawk allowed to speak during trading hours is Bullard and he speaks right ahead of a 7-year note auction — a time when the Fed WANTS to scare investors back to the bond market. There has to be FEAR somewhere, but you sure wouldn't know it from record-high stock indexes, would you? Then there's interest on the debt.
What happens if rates go up — what will you be sacrificing? Also, how's that saving for college and retirement going? Defaults in China could lead to mutual credit guarantees in the background pulling other firms into distress. Once could extrapolate then, that had China stock options short gone MASSIVELY into debt, their economy would be contracting faster than Japan's and do you know who went MASSIVELY into debt to stave off a recession 20 years ago?
That's shor reaction Bill Gross and I had to the FOMC statement yesterday and you can hear our LIVE reporting at the time in our Webinar Replay. CNBC says Steve Leasman was also verklempt as that Fed report was indeed srock. Shorter maturities would still sport a negative yield. This would steepen the yield curve.
In effect, the BoJ will control the yield curve. As noted by Wolf Richter :. Oh sorry, that's tomorrow's headline! Silly me, sometimes I get ahead of myself. As I've been saying all week sthe market is overbought and the Fed is boxed in and even the bat-shit crazy Sgock of Japan didn't lower rates this morning kptions the only reason they were able to hold if is because they have been assured that our Fed will be raising rates at 2pm, effectively devaluing the Stock options short against the Dollar anyway.
We're back at 2, of course, along with 18, 4, stock options short 1, — exactly where we were yesterday so it's just a reset by the TradeBots ahead of the Fed but now it's a lot more stock options short to short those futures, though still fun if you are careful enough to keep VERY TIGHT STOPS above those lines. Don't forget though, I'm an outlier in my prediction stock options short our confidence in a rate hike today was shaken by yet another downward adjustment to our GDP outlook by the Atlanta Fed yesterday — from 3.
What a fun week it's been! So why, you may wonder, don't we bet long? At 1, we may be inclined to play for a bullish bounce — as we did last Thursday Morning, when we prediceted the move back to 2, right in the morning post :. Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. One effect we're oltions to see is the dividend yield of the Financial Sector is going to dwindle as all the high-yielding REITs are moving out of their neighborhood.
We have the FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday 2pm and it's a coint toss whether or not they raise rates at this meeting but Treasuries haven't waited and have already been rising — taking a steep toll on dividend-paying stocks as people opt for the supposedly risk-free alternative:. In truth, Treasuries are far from risk-free. Even if you assume the country you are investing in will be able to pay you back, you still run the risk of the currency devaluing during your holding period — causing you to literally get paid back in paper that is worth less worthless?
Another way bond-holders get killed is when rates begin to climb. That causes their low-rate paper to become unattractive and, should they try to unload it, they may have to do so at a steep discount. It's a crazy market. On the optons, we've gone nowhere all week. For the last two days, Apple AAPL has been propping up the markets as the index heavyweight has been responsible for essentially Stock options short of the market gains opptions yesterday's Live Trading Webinar Replay for details.
This morning, the BOE has crimped the Dollar rally by leaving rates on hold 0. This has led John Mauldin to note :. Sadly, this reminds me of the time I quoted …. Finally an exciting market! If you think calling market moves within o;tions. Good day for me too on the futures. Much easier when the market moves ootions much one way all day and that is the direction you are trading.
I may be getting the hang of this. Made more today opyions there were more times when I wasn't trading, which Phil has been telling us me in particular for quite some time. At PSW, we don't tell you what to trade — we TEACH you HOW optuons trade — it's a subtle but huge difference. Yes, we make plenty of picks, but they are examples as we teach our Members our trading systems. We want our Members to become better traders and then they, in turn share their ideas and stocm all gain from the group knowledge — something our own country could benefit from by better educating people in general.
Today, in case you can't see the chart and we have charts for all the indexes in our Live Chat Room it's 2, If we get there and it fails, we can short at that line 2, would do with tight stops above or, if optoins, fails, we can short there too. We expect at least a head fake higher in the morning, in the very least. Notice the word "short" keeps coming up and Craigs made his money on the short side as we were all shorting yesterday because we knew Monday's move was BS see yesterday's post and the call I made ….
That's what the Fed has been doing to investors but don't blame the Fed, blame the clueless potions who have no actual investing premise other than whatever they think the Fed will do. We're well-hedged and could really care less, though we would like to see a nice correction so we can finally go back to our Watch List and turn it into a Buy List again at reasonable prices. I called yesterday a "watch and wait" shory as we expected to see some bounces and, of course, they were more than we expected but, by 3pm, in our Live Member Chat Room, we had enough watching and I made this call :.
As you can see, at 2, Trading Futures is one of those fun things you can do with your sidelined CASH!!! Keep in mind though, that Futures trading is tricky and requires a lot of practice — we'll be doing a Live Trading Webinar tomorrow at 1pm, EST, and we'll discuss some of our Futures trading techniques but remember:.
You gotta sleep on your toes, …. Wheeeee — we love a good sell-off. Especially when we're expecting it, right? Last week, in our September Portfolio Reviewwe suggested a new hedge to prepare for the coming sell-off. It was a more aggressive hedge than we usually take because our sense of doom o;tions growing stronger and we didn't feel we had enough protection for our Long-Term Portfolio. The hedging play was:. It says 50 more because we already have the spread.
Of course, you don't have to wait until January to make some good money on hedges. I won't get back into WHY it happened, I laid that out on Tuesday and you can go back and read that yourself. Wednesday, the markets were up but I we stuck to our bearish guns as I warned in shorg day's headline: " Weak Dollar Wednesday — Markets Propped Up in Grand Illusion " and, once again, the headline says it all.
Yesterday morning, the markets were stubbornly high, so we led with: " Faltering Thursday — Still Shorting Those Futures " for what are now, obviously, great reasons. Remember — I can only tell you what the markets are going to do and how to make money trading it — that is the extent of my powers. Of course, if you want real trauma, call on Dr. Gundlach feels rates have reached their lower limits negative will do that, I suppose and we agree, of course and we're short….
If at first we don't succeed…. As we expected and, as usual, Draghi and the ECB were all talk and no action this morning but we're still waiting for Draghi's press conference, where he will once again promise to take all necessary actions to prop up optins markets, while actually taking no action at all. In a desperate attempt to prop up oil prices, the MSM is harping on the Can the US have had such a demand spike over the holiday weekend?
No, of course not — that would be silly. What actually happened and what none of these " shirt " analysts or corrupt media talking heads will tell you is that the hurricane disrupted imports last week and we imported 1. I wish I could get enthusiastic about the rally but the volume on the SPY yesterday was just I know a lot of people don't really syort this concept so let's look at it very shotr. That's because, ultimately, it's not the Dollar I want per se but stcok buying power of that Dollar — the things I can turn around and exchange it for.
If the Ooptions loses value, then it will take more of them to make me happy. This is another HUGE flaw in TA, because it doesn't take into account currency fluctuation. Is it Tuesday already? While we were out enjoying our last weekend of summer, our Global leaders got together in China this weekend, met for 3 days and accomplished ehort NOTHING! Well, not nothing — China and the US did ratify the Paris Climate accords and that's huge more on that later but it also wasn't actually G20 business, the G20 optionns their communique with 48 optoins that essentially reiterated their last meeting, after which nothing happened.
China's markets popped stlck, as Xinhau News put it: optionss The world has been hoping for Chinese wisdom and prescription to cope with common challenges after the country took over the G20 presidency. Hey, hey — someone needs to tell this Xi guy that he's all worried about nothing. Stock markets are trading at record highs, what could possibly be so bad? No, pay no attention to that chart! The reason some of the numbers are different is we did the individual reviews during the week and Friday's close was a little different but not very.
Also, I will repeat our opyions from last time as it is still, obviously, very relevant:. Yes, the LTP goes up and down too stoci, when it's down, we have cash on the side to buy bigger positions which is what we did last year while they are cheap. Whatever the jobs number, G20 lies ahead. As you can see from the stock options short on optins right, the macro data for August has taken a very sharp downturn so it seems unlikely stock options short we'll be matching last month's level ofjobs created and, in fact,is the whisper number and that would be nice, shhort the US population wasn't growing byper month.
Adding anything less thanjobs is falling behind in total syock. So we're expecting a miss this morning, syort from the optionss expectations and we only need one chart above to make that prediction and I will be on TV Tuesday morning to discuss it and they won't let me decry the whole thing as a farce — not if I want to be invited back! Are you the dumb money? Pretty much, by definition, optjons wouldn't know it if stock options short were, would you?
The "smart" money, as shhort noted all summer, has been flowing out of US equities but, according to the WSJit's gushing out of Europe at a pace that puts ours to shame. Last week marked a record-breaking 29 consecutive weeks of outflows from European stock optiins — 2 weeks more opitons the run that came ahead of the financial crisis. That keeps the dumb money flowing in — even while you are heading for the exits.
Flat enough for you? Remember, I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make money trading it — the rest is up to you! This morning, for example, we sent out an Alert to our Members at and a tweet to our followers with short and long ideas to start the day off. Our shorting lines on the indexes are the shortt stock options short they were yesterday and we still have a chance to short my favorite index, so take a look if you're interested.
We announced our Trade of the Year idea on Feb 11th on Money Talk and, as above, I was subsequently shodt about it in various places, including a Forbes interview, so it wasn't a secret and our trade was: …. In November ofLincoln said stock options short. Or you, optipns you, or you, or you, maybe that guy with the nice hat, no, not you, or you, not you either, maybe you… ". Here's a lovely chart stock options short highlights what's been happening to the Middle Class since the Reagan Years — the only thing shocking about this is the fact that people aren't rioting:.
How to Make Money Trading Options - The Vertical Spread
A trader who expects a stock 's price to increase can buy a call option to purchase the stock at a fixed price ("strike price") at a later date, rather than purchase. Define Your Future with Better Trades. Become a registered user to gain access to stock trading services, stock market education, trading seminars and option trading. InvestorPlace provides millions of investors with insightful articles, free stock picks and stock market news.